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Asunto:[LEA] (en ingles) Investigadores predicen CAMBIO CLIMATICO mas rapido de lo esperado
Fecha:Viernes, 10 de Noviembre, 2000  09:07:24 (-0400)
Autor:Jose Rafael Leal <trastor>

CLIMATE CHANGE: Researchers Predict Speedier Rates Of Warming

     Global warming could happen more quickly than expected because soil and
vegetation will stop absorbing carbon dioxide by 2050 and start emitting it,
according to the scientists from the UK-based Meteorological Office's Hadley
     Their research, published today in the journal Nature, predicts that
land temperatures will rise by 6 degrees Celsius this century, 2 degrees
more than their previous estimate. Currently, oceans, soil and vegetation
absorb more than half of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere, but
the researchers predict that global warming will accelerate as warmer
conditions reduce the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by soil and
     British Environment Minister Michael Meacher said these "mind-blowing"
implications added weight to the importance of the international talks on
finalizing the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on global warming, scheduled for next
week in The Hague.
     The efficacy of planting trees to soak up extra carbon dioxide, one of
the proposals in the Kyoto Protocol, was also questioned by the researchers
in a separate paper (Vanessa Houlder, Financial Times, 9 Nov).
link a Financial Times:
 "All we can say ... is that if you want to plant trees to absorb CO2 in
order to offset additional future emissions, there are a huge amount of
uncertainties," said Geoff Jenkins, head of the Hadley climate change
program (Patricia Reaney, Reuters/Boston Globe, 9 Nov).
link a Reuters
     The cost of absorbing the extra emissions could be as high as $1.2
billion, a Princeton University researcher writes in an accompanying article
in Nature (Houlder, Financial Times, 9 Nov). Cautioning that it was
extremely difficult to predict such changes, he said that if the British
scientists' predictions proved accurate they might further highlight the
daunting task of trying to reduce the level of greenhouse gases (BBC Online,
8 Nov).
Link a BBC online:
The Hague Must Focus On Disparity Between Rich, Poor Countries
     This month's conference at The Hague must give priority to the
disparity between rich and poor countries, researchers from the Tyndall
Center for Climate Change Research, based at the University of East Anglia,
reported in the magazine New Scientist.
     Those countries most at risk from global warming produce the smallest
quantities of greenhouse gases, said Tyndall Center Director Mike Hulme.
     According to their research dividing each country's national wealth by
its predicted temperature rise, the world's four most vulnerable countries
are Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone and Tanzania. The least vulnerable
country is Luxembourg.
     "What this analysis shows is the relation between how much carbon each
bloc of countries emits and how vulnerable they are to climate change,"
Hulme said. "It highlights the disparity between rich and poor nations. The
climate conference will focus on the richer nations who must act now to
start reducing their emissions" (BBC Online, 8 Nov).

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