| Asunto: | [dxcolombia] [DX-NEWS] ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA | | Fecha: | Lunes, 16 de Mayo, 2005 12:25:04 (-0500) | | Autor: | Dxcolombia <dxcolombia @.........co>
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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC
AP20
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20
ARLP020
>From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 16, 2005
To all
radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de
K7RA
This is a special edition of the Propagation Forecast
Bulletin.
On Friday the Thirteenth (May 13, 2005) at 1650z a
tremendous
explosion near sunspot 759 blasted toward earth. The impact on
the
earth's magnetic field was felt at 0230z on May 15, producing
an
extreme geomagnetic storm.
I use a service from http://www.spaceweather.com
called
"SpaceWeather PHONE." I can set parameters for alerts, and
the
service calls my cell phone when events occur, such as the planetary
K
index rising above a set value. The service rang me up so many
times this
weekend that I finally shut the phone off. I could have
gone to the web and
shut it off or raised the parameters, but at the
time I just wanted to roll
over and go back to sleep.
On Sunday, May 15 the planetary K index
reached 9. This is huge.
The middle latitude, high latitude and planetary A
indexes for
Sunday were 44, 77 and 105 respectively, all very high values.
The
planetary A index predicted for Monday, May 16 is 40. Solar flux
is
expected to stay around 100 for Monday through Wednesday, May
16-18.
Michael Shaffer, KA3JAW is currently in Tampa, Florida. On
Friday,
May 13 Michael began to scan low VHF television channels because
of
the possibility of aurora from a coronal mass ejection on May 11.
He
emailed several photos he took of his television displaying KGAN,
channel 2,
in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. He received both audio and video
for about 30 minutes
after 5:00 PM local time. The distance was
about 1,100 miles.
Steven
Smith, K6BZ of Carmichael, California wrote to ask if "in the
early period of
a new solar cycle, sunspot groups tended to form in
the higher latitudes on
the solar disk and towards the end, favored
more equatorial latitudes." This
is true, and the greater emergence
of sunspots toward the sun's equator later
in the cycle heightens
the probability that the energy from those spots will
be
earth-directed.
If you would like to comment or have a tip, email
the author at,
k7ra@arrl.net.
For
more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation
of the
numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical
Information Service
propagation page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.
An archive of past
bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
Sunspot
numbers for May 5 through 11 were 50, 66, 55, 79, 106, 106
and 117 with a
mean of 82.7. 10.7 cm flux was 109.1, 110.4, 99.9,
101.3, 110, 119.2 and
125.3, with a mean of 110.7. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 4, 10, 64,
11, 10 and 11 with a mean of
16.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3,
3, 10, 38, 10, 6 and
7, with a mean of
11.
NNNN
/EX
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